What Do Trump Tariffs Really Mean for Windsor?

The City’s Uncertain Future

The Writing Is on the Wall

Windsor has long been Canada’s auto capital, a city built on decades of vehicle production, supplier networks, and high-paying factory jobs. But that legacy faces an existential crisis, and the reality is hitting faster than most realize.

The Trump administration has imposed a 25% tariff affecting Canadian-made vehicles and components destined  for the U.S….by far the largest market for Windsor-built products. That’s not a small tax increase… it’s a complete destruction of Windsor’s price competitiveness in North America’s most important auto market.

This isn’t just a temporary disruption.  Trump will likely maintain influence as a kingmaker in future administrations, and these policies could define the next decade. And for Stellantis, the company that owns Windsor Assembly, that means one thing: Why keep production in Canada when the U.S. is rolling out the red carpet?

Stellantis' Reality Check: Future Models Are Already at Risk

What Was Supposed to Be Built in Windsor?

Before the tariffs, Stellantis had big plans for Windsor Assembly. The company was supposed to produce:

1. Chrysler Pacifica (Current Model) – The last minivan still standing, but a shrinking segment with declining demand.

2. Dodge Charger Daytona EV – A niche electric muscle car that already faced uncertain demand.

3. Three-Row Dodge SUV – A next-generation Dodge Durango replacement aimed at mass-market buyers.

4. Two-Row Chrysler Crossover – Chrysler’s first all-new model in years, meant to inject life into the struggling brand.

The Likely Shift South

Now, with a 25% tariff on the table, let’s be realistic about what’s going to happen:

• The Three-Row Dodge SUV and Chrysler Crossover → Likely shifted to U.S. production before they even launch. These models haven’t hit the assembly line yet, making them easy to move. Detroit or Belvidere, Illinois, are the most likely landing spots.

• The Dodge Charger Daytona EV → Already a gamble due to EV market uncertainty. The tariff makes it completely uncompetitive. Expect Stellantis to quietly shelve the project or relocate production to a U.S. facility with government incentives.

• The Chrysler Pacifica → Minivans aren’t hot sellers, and adding a 25% cost increase will kill any competitive edge it had. Stellantis may dramatically cut production or shift it south.

The reality? Windsor was promised a future as an EV and SUV production hub…but the math no longer maths

The Supplier Exodus Has Already Begun

The auto industry isn’t just about assembling cars…it’s about the entire supply chain. And that supply chain is now at risk.

Tier-One and Tier-Two Suppliers Are Next to Leave

🔴 What’s a Tier-One Supplier? These are direct suppliers to Stellantis, providing major components like transmissions, interiors, and suspension systems. Examples: Magna International, Linamar, Flex-N-Gate.

🔵 What’s a Tier-Two Supplier? These supply parts to the Tier-Ones, making smaller components like wiring harnesses, electronics, plastic moldings, and castings.

Why These Suppliers Will Leave

• They face the same 25% tariff on exports.
  

• If an Ontario-based supplier makes say transmissions or electronics for a vehicle assembled in the U.S., that part now costs 25% more than a U.S.-made alternative.

• Trump’s America First policies will push nearshoring incentives.

• Expect U.S. states to offer tax breaks, grants, and subsidies to lure these companies south.

• Some suppliers already have U.S. operations…shifting more production there is an easy decision.

• Belvidere, Illinois, and Detroit are gearing up for expansion.

  • Feeder plants naturally follow assembly plants. If Stellantis moves SUV production to Belvidere or Detroit, its suppliers must move to remain competitive.

• Mexican Competition Is Also Affected

• Mexico has also been hit with similar tariffs, which means Canadian companies operating in both Canada and Mexico may consolidate into the U.S.

• Instead of maintaining fragmented production in two tariff-affected countries, merging into U.S. operations makes financial sense.

• Companies that once split production between Ontario and Mexico now have a clear incentive to combine resources in America.

In short: If Stellantis pulls out, it won’t be alone. Its suppliers will follow.

The Economic Fallout: Windsor’s Domino Effect

This isn’t just an auto industry problem…it’s a Windsor problem.

• Factory Jobs Will Vanish: Stellantis employs thousands in Windsor, but supplier job losses could be even worse.

• Real Estate Will Crash: The housing market relied on stable auto industry paychecks…if those jobs disappear, who’s left to buy?

• Small Businesses Will Suffer: Restaurants, retail, and service industries depend on auto workers…without them, demand shrinks overnight.

• Public Services Will Take a Hit: Fewer jobs = lower tax revenue = funding cuts for schools, healthcare, and infrastructure.

Why Poilievre Won’t Save Windsor

Some might think a new federal government will step in. But here’s the truth as I see it

• Poilievre has no interest in propping up Windsor’s auto industry.

• His economic focus is on oil, gas, and resource extraction…not auto manufacturing.

• Unlike Trudeau, he won’t cut a bailout cheque for Stellantis.

• If Stellantis asks for subsidies to offset tariffs, Poilievre will say no.

• Doug Ford isn’t likely to intervene either.

• Ontario’s Premier has already pivoted to non-auto industries.

Simply put: If Windsor was hoping for a rescue, it’s not coming.

Windsor Needs a New Plan, Fast

This isn’t speculation…it’s already happening.

• Stellantis will likely shift SUV production to the U.S.

• The supplier base will follow

• Job losses will ripple through Windsor’s economy
  
  

If Windsor doesn’t start preparing for life after auto manufacturing, it risks becoming the next Oshawa, or worse, make modern day Flint look like Disneyland

The time to act is now.