Everyone in the car business is on edge right now.
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Tariff talk
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U.S.–China tensions
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Canadian political shifts
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Loads thinning
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Inventory stalling
And it’s not just noise—it’s real.
But not all of it matters the way people think.
Let’s bring this down to the ground.
🇨🇦 What’s Actually Happening
The U.S. has placed a 25% tariff on Canadian-built vehicles.
That’s not likely to change.
Canada has proposed reciprocal tariffs on U.S.-built vehicles.
But here’s the key:
They only apply to non-CUSMA-compliant units…that is, vehicles with less than 75% North American content.
That’s a small slice of cross-border flow…maybe 50,000 units per year.
This isn’t a death knell.
It’s a symbolic chess move…election cycle posturing, not economic decoupling.
🇺🇸 Meanwhile in the U.S.…
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The U.S. is still ~9 million units short from the 2020–2023 model years.
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New vehicle pricing is up.
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Incentives are drying up.
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Fleet/Rental is being de-prioritized.
(Yes, you’ll see rental buyers back in the lanes.) -
OEMs are quietly reworking supply chains…but that’s slow, not sudden.
Used cars…especially clean Canadian units…are still the pressure release valve.
What This Means (If You Know Where to Look)
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The USD is likely to stay strong, especially if U.S. bonds rise during debt refinancing.(June 2025)
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The CAD is likely to stay soft, especially with a high-spending Liberal government poised for re-election. (April 2025)
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That means continued arbitrage opportunity…even with friction.
In fact, if you’re smart and selective…
Canada-to-U.S. might become more attractive, not less.
This Newsletter is sponsored by Influence.vin
What to Do Now
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Don’t overreact. Noise ≠ signal.
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Focus on near-new used: 2020–2023, 4WD, trucks, SUVs.
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Build cross-border relationships. That moat? It’s not a wall…if you’ve built a bridge.
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Watch the CAD/USD spread. Arbitrage lives there.
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Be early. When the blood hits the water… it’s too late.
This moment isn’t about finding the play.
It’s about staying calm enough to see it.
That’s all for now.
See you next Tuesday.
Want help navigating this next phase?
I still move metal every day…and I’ll be sharing more of these insights weekly.
Join The VIN Syndicate if you want access to a crew of like-minded dealers.
About Bob Manor
Bob Manor is the founder of South Ontario Auto Remarketing, Can-Am Dealer Services, and is Co-Founder of Auto Auction Review. Bob is also the creator of the Freedom Formula. With over 30 years of experience in the car dealership world, Bob specializes in wholesale, dealer services, and personal branding. His mission is to help dealership professionals take control of their careers, build resilient personal brands, and achieve lasting freedom in business and life.
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